Hull Public Health 

The Deep, Hull The Guildhall, Hull King William Statue, Market Place, Hull City Hall, Hull Spurn Lightship, The Marina, Hull

 

 

Population


Documents

Main documents for information on population include the following:

JSNA
Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics
JSNA Hull Atlas
JSNA Ward Profiles 2013

The JSNA and Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics include estimates of the population of Hull for different geographical and grouping levels, such as ward level, by deprivation group, for each GP practice, etc. The JSNA Toolkit also includes information about changes over time and population projections. Other estimates in relation to population, such as the numbers and percentages of Hull's population from different Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) groups is also given in the JSNA and Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics. Other associated information such as the number of births, fertility, number of deaths, etc is also given in the JSNA and Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics, as well as Hull JSNA Toolkit: Sexual Health (births and fertility) and Hull JSNA Toolkit: Mortality.

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Background: Resident Population Versus Registered Population

Two estimates of population are used throughout the JSNA and JSNA Toolkit: resident population based on estimates of the numbers who actually live in Hull and registered population based on the number of patients registered with Hull GPs. Which estimate is the most appropriate will depend on the specific analysis or circumstance being examined.

Estimates of the number of residents can be obtained from two different sources as follows:

1. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates the number of residents for each local authority using information from the Census. Following the Census, ONS produce estimates using the Census estimates as a base, but ageing everyone by one year, adding births and excluding deaths, and providing an estimate of population change for each geographical area for inward and outward migration. The migration estimate is more difficult to ascertain, and uses changes in GP registrations to estimate migration within England and Wales, and other sources of data to estimate migration to and from countries outside England and Wales. The Census is considered to be the best estimate of population as in theory every person in the UK at the time of the Census should complete the Census form. A Census has been undertaken in England every ten years for more than a century, with the last one undertaken on the 27th March 2011. Resident population estimates are likely to become further away from the 'actual' resident population figures the longer the time since the last Census. Thus it is common practice for ONS to re-calculate the population estimates for a few years prior to the Census after new Census data is available.

2. An estimate of the resident population in Hull can be obtained from the GP registration file. This file includes details of each patient registered with GPs within Hull (and East Riding of Yorkshire and surrounding area) and includes postcode of the patient. The postcode of the patient can be used to select those patients registered with Hull or East Riding of Yorkshire which live in Hull. The majority of the patients registered with Hull GPs will tend to live in Hull but not all of them, and around 10% of residents of East Riding of Yorkshire are registered within Hull GPs.

Neither of these estimates of resident population will be totally accurate. Despite it being a legal requirement, not everybody will complete a Census form, and people living in more deprived areas such as Hull will be more likely to not to complete a form, so it is likely that the Census will underestimate the population. ONS adjust the Census figures to take into account this, but their adjustment will be an estimate and it is not known how accurate their adjustment will reflect reality. The GP registration file will include all patients registered with Hull and East Riding of Yorkshire GPs on a specific date. However, some people may come to live in Hull but be registered with a GP outside the Hull and East Riding of Yorkshire, or have moved away and have not yet registered with another GP (so are still registered with a GP locally). Once someone registers with another GP, they are automatically removed from the practice register of their old practice. The young and young men in particular, tend not to register quickly with a GP when they move, and in some cases they will take a year or a few years to register and only do so when the become ill and see a GP. However, it is likely that the majority of people will register with a GP relatively quickly, particularly those with chronic illnesses or the elderly. This means that resident estimates based on the GP registration file will not be totally accurate. However, it is not known if they will under-estimate or over-estimate the population. Both the ONS and GP registration estimates of resident population will be an estimate at a specific point in time. For example, the 2011 Census estimate is based on the resident population as at 27th March 2011, and ONS estimate their update estimates for mid-year (30th June), whereas the local GP registration file historically has been extracted quarterly with local analyses using the resident population estimate as at 1st October. Since the date in question, people can move into the area or move out of the area in the meantime so estimates will change.

Local estimates of life expectancy, mortality and other estimates use the GP registration file to estimate the numbers within the population of Hull whereas nationally derived estimates use the ONS population estimates. The ONS figures are not available for smaller geographical areas or groups, such as at ward level or for different deprivation groups, so this is the only estimate of resident (or registered population) that is available for local analyses. This means that the life expectancy and mortality figures calculated will differ slightly.

The estimated numbers registered with local GPs is derived from the GP registration file mentioned above. Differences in the resident and registered population estimates at area level, and registered population estimates at practice level are examined in relation to where the patients live.

It is necessary to use estimates of resident population for calculations of life expectancy, mortality rates, prevalence of lifestyle and behavioural risk factors, etc. However, in other cases, the base is the registered population such as when examining the prevalence of diagnosed disease where the diagnosis data comes from the GP practices.

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ACORN

Various classifications models of different characteristics of residents have been produced. These classifications use various data to create groups of people who are deemed to be similar with regard to certain characteristics. These 'types' are generally targeted or treated differently, based on their characteristics (lifestyle, attitudes or behaviour etc), in terms of marketing of commercial products (which could include health-related care or public health).

One such classification in common usage is the ACORN classification (A Classification of Residential Neighbourhoods), and there is also an ACORN classification specifically for health. The resident population classified as each of the ACORN and Wellbeing ACORN groups is given within Hull JSNA Toolkit: Deprivation and Associated Measures.

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Age Structure / Age Profile

Population pyramids illustrate the age structure of the population for males and females separately, generally showing the age breakdown in five year age bands. The overall population pyramid for Hull is given in the JSNA and Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics, as are population pyramids for each ward in Hull. The JSNA and Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics also give the numbers of males and females living in Hull by five year age bands in a table, with the Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics additionally displaying the numbers registered with Hull GPs.

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Births

The number of births in Hull is given in Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics. Information is given at ward level in the JSNA Hull Atlas. Infant mortality rates are given within Hull JSNA Toolkit: Mortality and Hull JSNA Toolkit: Children and Young People.

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Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) groups

Population estimates of ethnicity and Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) groups and language spoken at home are given in Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics. Information from the 2011 Census is also given in the JSNA Hull Atlas.

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Census

Information is given at ward level in the JSNA Hull Atlas for various population and housing measures from the 2011 Census, such as resident population, population density, marital status, ethnicity, language spoken at home, religion, adult life stage, socio-economic classification, number of households, type of dwelling, tenure, central heating, overcrowding, household composition and household deprivation.

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Changes Over Time / Migration

Population projections have been produced by the Office for National Statistics and are given within Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics.

Changes to the resident population from one year to the next (2007 to 2008) have been examined in Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics, to give an indication of the types of people who tend to move within Hull, outside Hull and into Hull. The 'types' considered were based on age, deprivation and ACORN classification.

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Deaths

Information relating to the number of deaths, detailed causes of death, cumulative mortality figures for each main cause of death by age at death, location of death (home, hospital, nursing or residential homes, etc), winter deaths and mortality rates are all given within Hull JSNA Toolkit: Mortality. Information is given at ward level in the JSNA Hull Atlas.

Deaths are generally defined in relation to time period in which the death was registered rather than when the death actually occurred. For example, mortality rates for 2009-2011 involve deaths registered during the calendar years 2009 to 2011 inclusive. Further discussion of this is given in the Glossary and in Hull JSNA Toolkit: Mortality.

Also see Mortality.

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Density

Population density is available within Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics.

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Deprivation

Using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (see Deprivation for further information), the number of people living in Hull defined on the basis of deprivation can be estimated. Information is available in Hull JSNA Toolkit: Deprivation and Associated Measures.

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Fertility

Information relating to fertility rates, abortions, numbers of births, age of mothers, under 18 conception rate are all given in Hull JSNA Toolkit: Sexual Health, with some in Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics. The Glossary and Hull JSNA Toolkit: Sexual Health give a definition of the total period fertility rate.

The under 18 conception rate is an indicator within Public Health Outcomes Framework and further analysis is given within the Public Health Outcomes Framework Main Report (to open this report on a particular PHOF indicator, click here) and Public Health Outcomes Framework Summary. This is also displayed within the JSNA Hull Atlas.

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Humber Data Observatory

The Humber Data Observatory have completed ward profiles for each ward in Hull (and the Humber) and these are available from their website www.humberdataobservatory.org.uk. These profiles include information on the population of each ward.

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Population Density

Population density is available within Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics.

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Population Projections

Population projections have been produced by the Office for National Statistics and are given within Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics.

The Projecting Older People Population Information (POPPI) System provides population projections for people aged 65+ years for 2011, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. It provides estimates of the number of people aged 65+ years in Hull expected to have various medical conditions or have specific needs. These estimates are available in Hull JSNA Toolkit: Older People.

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Population Pyramids

Population pyramid illustrate the age structure of the population for males and females separately, generally showing the age breakdown in five year age bands. The overall population pyramid for Hull is given in the JSNA and Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics, as well as population pyramids for each ward in Hull. The JSNA and Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics also give the numbers of males and females living in Hull by five year age bands in a table, with the Hull JSNA Toolkit: Demography and Demographics additionally displaying the numbers registered with Hull GPs. The population pyramids for each ward are also displayed within the JSNA Ward Profiles 2013.

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